corona virus affect in india

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  • Mar 19, 2020

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work on a series of policy measures to combat the economic impact of coronavirus quickly spread, and that may include some transfer cash to workers in the informal sector, the country’s top economic advisor said.

The virus, which causes respiratory disease known as COVID-19, has infected more than 207,800 people and killed more than 8,600 people worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. India reported at least 151 cases, of which 14 have been recovered and three died, according to the health ministry.

Health officials around the world have urged countries to step up measures to keep the number of cases reported daily on a manageable level for the health care system, a concept known as “flattening of the curve.”

Countries like Italy, where the infection spreads rapidly, struggling to maintain and medical care facilities are being stretched to their limits. But many of the required actions, such as shutting down public places like shopping malls or tourist forbid, is estimated to have an adverse economic impact – in the service sector such as retail, recreation, and travel.

“There is actually an important trade-offs between the uneven curve, from the perspective of health policy, and the impact on the result of the economy,” Krishnamurthy Subramanian, chief economic adviser to the Indian government, told CNBC Tanvir Gill.

He said that India anticipates the possibility of supply chain disruptions and a drop in demand which can, in turn, affect the business. Thus, the government is working on both the fiscal and monetary policy.

“On the fiscal side, (to) try and see if there might be some transfer of cash to be made,” said Subramanian. “India has a very large informal sector and informal sector can be particularly affected by the lockdown because there are people who do not necessarily have a regular job.”

account for approximately 94% of total employment in the country and contribute about 45% of output.

Subramanian said the government is also concerned about the banking sector, which is slowly recovering from major bad debt crisis; New Delhi wants to ensure there is no additional impact on the lender of coronavirus India as a potential slowdown in demand. Reserve Bank of India this week to introduce measures to. What could work in favor of India is the fact that oil prices have plummeted recently, that is.

Last week India almost all travel visas, limited visa-free travel for foreigners of Indian origin, and closed the land border with Myanmar.

Although India’s first case COVID-19 were detected in January, stringent measures including self-isolation orders, travel restrictions and screenings at the airport initially stored India reported lower numbers to the number of cases outside China exploded.

However, Subramanian said that tests showed there is still no evidence of community spread of the virus in India.

“I will continue to remain cautious, but at the same time, what I would say is that the number of cases so far only grows linearly,” he said. “Based on the data, the case seemed to be in control, but, that said, it is important for us to continue to respond to the evolving situation.”

The impact COVID-19 in the Indian economy is still relatively light. But even before the outbreak, the rate of quarterly expansion has been due to other factors.

Subramanian argues that the growth rate could take a hit in the first three months of this year – which is also India’s fourth quarter fiscal year 2020 – but he also said that the magnitude is difficult to predict. Although economic indicators have shown signs of improvement in recent months, in March likely to be a drag on the quarter due to the outbreak.

“Q4 growth, in fact, may be lower than 5% due to the impact of one month,” Subramanian said, adding that the reports show that adverse effects can continue into April, when India begin a new fiscal year.

Economists have warned that if India is facing an epidemic of out-of-control such as Italy, for example, then the impact could be more severe.

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