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– March 18, 2020 07:19 UTC
More than 214,000 people have been infected with the new coronavirus that has widespread deployment of origin in China over the last few months. More than 8,700 have died. a comprehensive guide to understand and navigate this global public health threat below.
This is a rapidly growing epidemic, and we’ll update the guide every day at 3:00 am EDT to make you as prepared and informed as possible.
8 Mar: early publication of documents.
March 9th 03:00 ET: Added three new parts of question-and-answer and the number of cases updated.
March 10th 03:00 ET: Added a question-and-answer part of the new and the number of cases updated.
March 11th 03:00 ET: Added a new section on drug claimed and the number of cases updated.
March 12th 03:00 ET: Updated section on the US case and how SARS-CoV-2 spreads. Updated the number of global cases.
March 13th 03:00 ET: Updated answer to “Should I avoid large gatherings and travel?” and “How coronavirus transmission in comparison with the flu?” Also updated the number of global cases and the United States.
March 14th 03:00 ET: Updated the number of global cases and the United States.
15 March, 03:00 ET: Updated the number of global cases and the United States.
March 16th 03:00 ET: Updated the number of global cases and the United States. Updated guidance on what needs your medicine cabinet.
March 17th 03:00 ET: Updated the number of global cases and the United States.
March 18th 03:00 ET: Updated the global and the US the number of cases
You should be concerned and take this seriously. But you do not need to panic.
This is a public health expert mantra has been adopted since the epidemic mushroomed in January-and it is about as entertaining as it is easy to achieve. But it’s important that we all try.
This new coronavirus dubbed SARS-CoV-2-unquestionably dangerous. This causes a disease called COVID-19, which can be deadly, especially for the elderly and people with underlying health conditions. While the death rate among infected people is not clear, even some low estimate is currently seven times higher than expected for seasonal influenza.
And the SARS-CoV-2 is here in the United States, and it circulating- we have only begun to determine where it is and how far it has spread. Problems with delayed federal testing our ability to detect infection in travelers. And as we work to catch up, the virus has continued to move. Now it seems to spread in several communities across the country. It is unclear whether we will be able to get ahead of it and contain it; even if we could, it would take a lot of resources and effort to do so.
All that said, SARS-CoV-2 is not an existential threat. While it can be shut off, about 80 percent of cases were mild to moderate, and people recover within one or two weeks. In addition, there are clear, evidence-based actions can we take to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and society as a whole.
Now is not the time to panic, which would only get in the way of what you need to do. While it is completely understandable worry, you are best to get through this unscathed is to channel the energy of anxious to do what you can do to stop the SARS-CoV-2 from spreading.
And to do that, you must first have accurate information on the situation of the most complete as you can. To that end, below is our best effort to resolve all the questions you might have about the SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, and the situation in the US.
We’ll start with where it all started-virus itself.
SARS-CoV-2 stands for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. As the name suggests, it coronavirus and related to the coronavirus that causes (Severe acute respiratory syndrome Channel). Note :. When the SARS-CoV-2 was first identified it
Coronavirus is a large family of viruses which get their name from halo spiked protein that adorn their outer surface, which resembles a crown (corona) under the microscope. As a family, they infect a variety of animals, including humans.
With the discovery of SARS-CoV-2, there are now known to infect humans. Four regularly circulate in humans and mostly causes mild to moderate upper respiratory tract infections, common colds, basically.
The other three are the coronavirus that recently jumped from host animals to humans, resulting in more severe disease. This includes the SARS-CoV-2 and Mers-CoV, which led to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (mer), and SARS-CoV, which causes SARS.
In all three cases, the virus is thought to have moved from bat-which has a large number of circulating strains of coronavirus-to-human through intermediate animal host. Researchers have linked SARS-CoV virus in bats, which may have moved on to humans through the masked palm civet and raccoon dogs sold for food in the streets of live-animal markets in China. Mers is thought to have spread from bats to dromedary camel before jumping to humans.
SARS-CoV-2 associated with the coronavirus in bats, but the intermediate animal host to humans and the unclear. There has been much speculation that the intermediate host can pangolin, but.
While the identity of the intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2 is still not known, the researchers suspected the mystery animals present in the live animal market in Wuhan, China-the capital of central China’s Hubei and the epicenter of the outbreak. The market, which is then described in media reports as the Chinese government “” sells a wide variety of sea food and live animals, some wild. Many of the early SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with the market; in fact, many early cases are in people who work there.
Public health experts suspect that the market untidiness could cause the virus’ spread. markets such well-known for helping to launch a new infectious disease humans-they tend to cram together with a variety of animal life have their own menagerie of pathogens. Close quarters, meat preparations, and hygienic conditions are bad all bids virus inordinate number of opportunities to recombine, mutate and jump to new hosts, including humans
That said, describing 41 cases at the beginning of the outbreak shows that the person identified early disgusted with SARS-CoV-2 does not have a link to the market. , The case was the man who started the infection causes symptoms on 1 December 2019. None of the man’s family fell ill, and he did not have a relationship with one of the other cases in the outbreak.
The significance of this and the main source of the outbreak remains unknown.
market was closed and sterilized by Chinese officials on January 1 as the outbreak began to pick up.
on the SARS-CoV-2 causes the disease by the World Health Organization (WHO). As the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows ,.
COVID-19 is a disease with a variety of symptoms and severity, and we are still learning about the full spectrum. So far, it seems to range from a mild case with no symptoms or have the potential to moderate pneumonia, severe pneumonia, respiratory disorders, organ failure and, for some, death.
Many cases begin with fever, fatigue and mild respiratory symptoms such as dry cough. Most cases do not get much worse, but some progress into a serious disease
According to the data of nearly 56,000 laboratory confirmed COVID-19 patients in China, an overview of the common symptoms go as follows .: < p> Data published in the (so-called wHO-China Joint mission), which toured the country for several weeks in February to assess the outbreak and response efforts.
Most people who are infected will have mild illness and recover fully within two weeks.
in epidemiological studies of 44 672 confirmed cases in China, which was written by the emergency response team of epidemiology and published by the Chinese CDC, the researchers reported that about. The researchers defined mild cases such as the start of symptoms whit for mild pneumonia. None of mild cases of fatal; all recovered.
If not, about 14 percent are considered severe, defined as cases with difficult or shortness of breath, an increased rate of breathing, and blood oxygen levels decline. None of the severe cases were fatal; all recovered.
Nearly 5 percent of the cases that are considered important. These cases included respiratory failure, septic shock, and / or multiple organ dysfunction or failure. Approximately half of these patients died.
Finally, 257 cases (0.6 percent) did not have data that weight.
The overall mortality rate in patients examined was 2.3 percent.
Your risk of becoming seriously ill and dying increases with age and underlying health conditions.
in the group of 44 672 cases discussed above, the highest death rate among those aged 60 and above. People aged 60-69 have a mortality rate of 3.6 per cent. 70-79 age group had a mortality rate of about 8 percent, and those 80 or olderer has a mortality rate of nearly 15 percent.
In addition, researchers have information about other health conditions from 44 672 to 20 812 patients. Of those with additional medical information available, 15 536 say they have no health conditions that underlie them. The mortality rate among the group of 0.9 percent.
a much higher death rate among the remaining 5279 patients who reported some underlying health conditions. Those who reported cardiovascular disease has a mortality rate of 10.5 per cent. For patients with diabetes, the mortality rate was 7.3 percent. Patients with chronic respiratory diseases have a level of 6.3 percent. Patients with high blood pressure had a death rate of 6.0 percent and cancer patients have a level of 5.6 percent.
puzzlingly, men have a higher mortality rate than women. In the study, 2.8 percent of adult male patients died compared with 1.7 percent death rate among female patients.
In some studies, researchers have noted a number of cases is higher in men than in women. Joint Mission WHO report found that men comprise 51 percent of cases. Another study of 1,099 patients found that men comprised.
So far, it is unclear whether these figures are real or whether they would even come out when researchers saw a greater number of cases. It is also unclear whether this bias may reflect differences in exposure levels, underlying health conditions, or smoking rates could make him more vulnerable.
That said, the sex differences have been seen in diseases caused by SARS-CoV- this 2 relatives, SARS-CoV and mer-CoV. There is some preliminary research to look into this in mice. Some findings indicate that there may be. Other studies have also suggested that are involved in modulating the immune response to the virus may also serve to protect those genetically female, who have two X chromosomes, compared with male genetic, who have only one X chromosome
Yes, it seems so. In all the studies and the data so far, the kids make small fraction of cases and have very few deaths were reported. In 44 672 cases examined by the Chinese CDC, less than one percent were in children aged 0 to 9 years. None of the cases fatal. Similar findings have been reported in
WHO Report-China Joint Mission also noted that children appeared largely unscathed in this epidemic, writes, “disease in children seems to be relatively rare and mild.” From the data so far, they report that “the infected children have largely been identified through contact tracing of adults in the household.”
unpublished, un-peer reviewed study of 391 cases in Shenzhen, China, seems to support that observation. Noting that in the household, but they have a mild case. This study was posted on the preprint server March 4 medical.
However, as the Joint Mission report noted, given the available data, it is impossible to determine the rate of infection among children and what role they play in encouraging the spread of diseases and epidemics overall. “Of note,” the report continued, “People interviewed by the Joint Team Mission could not remember the episode where transmission occurs from children to adults.”
On average, it takes five to six days from the day you are infected with SARS-CoV-2 until you develop symptoms COVID-19. the period of pre-symptom-also known as the “incubation” -can variety from one to 14 days.
From there, people with minor ailments tend to recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe cases can take three to six weeks to recover, according to the WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who goes by Dr. Tedros.
This is a difficult question to answer. The point is that we do not really know.
Case fatality rate (CFR) -that is, the number of people infected will die from the infection-simply calculated by dividing the number of dead to dead plus the amount recovered. The CFR You’ve probably seen so far tend to be a rough version of it. Deaths divided by the total cases
One problem with this rough calculation is that the cases we calculated were not all completed. Some patients who are sick later probably going to die. In that situation, the case of the patient is calculated, but their deaths were not (yet). This skews the calculation at this time to make the CFR look artificially low.
But a far greater concern is that we reduced the number of cases overall. Because most COVID-19 cases that we know about light, health experts suspect that many more infected people have not presented themselves for health care providers to be tested. They may have one of those cases COVID-19 for the common cold or not noticed at all. In areas hit by COVID-19 may not be sufficient testing capacity to detect all cases of mild. If a large number of mild cases being missed in the total number of cases, it can make the CFR look artificially high.
The best way to clear up this uncertainty is to wait until one of the local outbreak completely over and then do a blood test in the general population to see how many people are infected. Those blood tests will look for antibodies that target the SARS-CoV-2. (Antibodies are Y-shaped proteins that the immune system produces to help identify and pathogen attacks and other unfriendly invaders.) The presence of specific antibodies against the bacteria in a person’s blood indicates that the person has been exposed to germs, either through infection or immunization. General population screening for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies will provide a clearer picture of how many people are actually infected regardless of whether they are symptomatic or diagnosed during illness. Number which can then be used to calculate an accurate CFR.
So far, some of the earliest inhabitants of screening for COVID-19 infection has been carried out in China, especially in Guangdong province. Screening of the 320,000 people who go to the clinic fever suggest that we can not be missing a large number of mild cases. This in turn suggests that we calculate CFR wild now higher than it should be. However, experts still suspect that many mild cases will be reported, and many anticipate that the true CFR will be lower than what we are counting now.
Beyond getting the basic amount of the appropriate cases and deaths, CFR is also complicated because they can vary by population, time, and place. We already mentioned above that the increase in the CFR in a patient population based on age, gender and underlying health. But over time, health care providers will get better collectively to identify and treat patients, thus lowering the CFR.
These statistics further elaborate, the quality of health differ from place to place. CFR in a resource-poor hospital may be higher than that in a hospital that is rich in resources. In addition, the health system is overwhelmed in the outbreak may not provide optimal treatment for each patient, artificially increasing the CFR in places.
This seems to be what we see in China so far. In the report of WHO-China Joint Mission, experts note that the Wuhan-where the outbreak began and where the health system has been destroyed by the number of cases-CFR is a whopping 5.8 percent. The rest of China at that time had a CFR of 0.7 percent.
On March 5, there are approximately 13,000 cases and 400 deaths were reported outside China Hubei Province (where Wuhan is located). A crude calculation CFR put about 3 percent, but this calculation is likely to drift across the plague. We will update the current crude CFR periodically.
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