coronavirus in usa deaths

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  • Mar 24, 2019

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meeting federal guidelines warn against more than 10 people as London report predicted a high mortality in the US without drastic action.

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Swept the recommendation of a new federal announced on Monday for Americans to sharply restrict their activities appear to draw on the anniversary of the scientific reports were terrible, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of the new coronavirus and pressing cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

to curb the epidemic, will need drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for the period until the vaccine is available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They warned that such steps were carried enormous costs that can also affect people’s health, but concluded they “strategy is only feasible at the current time.”

That’s because the steps are different, intended to reduce transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, only to cut the death toll estimated at half, a new report says.

The White House guidelines urging Americans to avoid the gathering of more than 10 people. That by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which says that the meeting should be limited 50.

The White House also recommend that the Americans are working from home, avoid unnecessary travel expenditure and refrain from eating in restaurants. Some states and cities have imposed strict measures, including lockdowns and business closures.

Asked at a press conference with the President of the Trump about what has caused the change in thinking by the White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the leaders of the task force, said the new information came from a model developed in the UK.

“What has the greatest impact in the model is the social distance, small groups, will not be publicly in large groups,” said Dr. Birx. “The most important thing is that if one person in the household becomes infected, the entire household’s own quarantined for 14 days. Because that stops 100 percent from outside the household transmission. “

Dr. Birx description of the findings were consistent with those in. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, a professor of epidemiology, said in an interview that his group has shared their projections by the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report is sent during the weekend.

This group also has its share Dr. Ferguson said, including the eight to nine percent of the people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, can die if infected.

“We do not have a clear exit strategy,” said Dr. Ferguson of the measures recommended. “We will have to suppress the virus is – frankly, without a time limit -. Until we have a vaccine “.

“It’s a difficult position for the world to be in,” he added

report, which was not released in a peer-reviewed journal but was written by 30 scientists on behalf of the response team coronavirus Imperial College, simulation role public health measures aimed at reducing contact.

“effectiveness of one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a huge impact on the transmission,” the authors write.

Dr. Ferguson said the potential health impact of an influenza pandemic comparable to destroy 1918, and it will be “kind of overwhelm health systems capacity in developed countries, including the United States,” unless steps are taken to reduce the spread of the virus.

The White House task force did not respond to requests for comment. The officials stressed that the new guidelines limiting the federal government will be re-evaluated after 15 days, although they hinted that they will most likely be extended.

The study authors said their research makes it clear that people in the United States may be advised to continue the cruel restrictions on their daily lives for far longer than Mr. Trump and the task force indicated on Monday.

“The main challenge of oppression,” British scientists conclude, is the length of time that an intensive intervention will be necessary, given that “we predict the transmission will quickly recover if the intervention relaxing.”

The authors say that the so-called mitigation own policy – isolating people suspected of having the virus at home, quarantining their contacts and separates most susceptible than others – may reduce the peak demand on health care systems by two thirds and mortality by half when applied for three months. But it still will generate hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems “overwhelmed many times,” they said.

This is why the authors also recommend measures to keep the entire population, such as school closures. Intervention, they suggest, could be “relaxed while relatively brief window of time” and then reintroduced if the infection is just beginning to grow.

The researchers say that the ‘social and economic impact’ long-term will likely be “profound , “and that the action is not guaranteed to succeed and may themselves have” a significant impact on the health and well-being. ”

“there is no public health intervention with a disruptive effect on society as has been previously tried for such a long period of time,” added mereka.’Bagaimana populations and communities will respond remains of which are not clear. “

Michael D. Shear contributed reporting.

Updated March 18, 2020

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