As a power trip cancellation plague, a night and large gatherings, mounting economic damage across the country.
Regions Seattle has been hardest hit so far by the spread of coronavirus in the UK … Chona Kasinger States.Credit for The New York Times
by, ,,,, David McCabe and
last week, Mark Canlis restaurant in Seattle that offers a $ 135 tasting menu to the dining room crowded every night. hornor Eileen inn on the coast of Maine is a reservation for the spring graduation busy. And Kalena Masching, real estate agents in California, fielding multiple offers on homes $ 1.2 million.
Then outbreak of coronavirus changed everything.
Today, the restaurant Mr. Canlis is preparing to be a drive-through operation serving burgers. Hornor mother when she is bleeding cash refund deposits for dozens of canceled bookings. And Ms. Masching scrambling to salvage sold after one bid after another fell through.
“Last week, I’ll tell you nothing has changed,” he said. “This week, it has all gone to hell.”
For the week, forecasters have warned of the potential coronavirus to disrupt the American economy. But there is little hard evidence beyond the delayed delivery of goods from China and stomach-churning volatility in the financial markets.
Now that effect appears in the center of nightlife and shopping centers in the suburbs from coast to coast.
Not since the attacks of 11 September 2001, has enveloped so much the economic crisis so quickly. Broadway dark. College basketball tournament was canceled and professional sports are detained indefinitely. Conferences, concerts and St Patrick’s Day parade has been canceled or postponed. Even Disneyland – which remains open through the recession a decade ago that wiped out millions of American jobs and trillions of dollars in wealth -. Is closed
“It hit the heart of the economy, and economic hits on all sides,” says Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “It’s not just that we slowed things. We really hit the pause button, and there is no precedent, no mold for it. “
The effect is felt even in places that plague itself has not been reached. Maine does not have a single diagnosed case of virus when Ms. hornor learned Wednesday that, which accounts for 80 percent of its business, calling off classes in-person and send students home. But at noon the next day, she had lost 84 reservations, with more cancellations all but certain. In somber staff meeting on Thursday, he said the 10 employees that he would try to avoid layoffs but cuts in hours are inevitable.
“I have people who depend on me to be able to pay their rent,” he said. “Not only did I not have the money comes in, I like the cash bleeding in the case of a refund to everyone.”
Now that the outbreak is hitting the consumer, the damage is all but certain to spread. JPMorgan Chase said Thursday that it expected the US economy to contract in the first two quarters of this year, which would meet the common definition of recession. A, also released Thursday, found that a majority thought the outbreak was probably caused “great recession.”
For catering, function room and others whose business depends on a large group of people gathered together, business dried up almost overnight.
“This started on Tuesday,” said Elizabeth Perez, co -The owner and marketing director for Pavilion Grille in Boca Raton, Florida. “They canceled Thursday night with a dinner for 47 people, and it’s the first.” Then dinner Ultimate Chefs’ to 120 was scheduled for March 22 was postponed. A bar mitzvah for 150 on May 30 was canceled. “That’s at least $ 10,000,” said Ms. Perez. He usually employs 20 people at an event to serve the food table and buses. because they are hourly workers, if there is no event, no salary.
it is not only the plague itself that causes the damage. the turmoil it has caused in financial markets also started to spill over into the real economy. < / P>
last weekend, Ms. Masching, a broker with Redfin in Silicon Valley, received three bids on a $ 1.2 million house he enrolled in Mountain View. But Monday, the two men had pulled their bids and the third tried to retreat, said stock market losses, after the client has received. At the same time, he said, prospective buyersre decided to hold bidding on the belief that the massacre could eventually lead to lower housing prices.
“Most of our clients use their stock for a cash advance, and they do not have the purchasing power they did even two weeks ago,” he said.
In many countries, the office remains open, the restaurant remains full and daily life is still relatively normal, albeit with fewer handshakes and wash hands more. But in places where the virus is already widespread, the decline goes well.
In Seattle, where the hardest hit so far by the outbreak in the United States, South Lake Union is usually crowded been eerily quiet since Amazon and other technology companies with headquarters in the area told their employees to work from home. Which has been a disaster for Tom Douglas, a local chef with a dozen restaurants. Business dropped 90 percent from usual.
On Wednesday, Mr. Douglas told his staff that the dinner service on Sunday will be the last for two or three months. He shuttering restaurants and houses almost all of the approximately 800 employees. He plans to apply for unemployment itself and federal disaster research or small business loans
“This is a serious natural disaster -. I do not think many people think about how it was just because there was no wind and no flooding, “he said. “But this is a real natural disaster that affects people at the most basic level.”
resignation from public life sent shock waves beyond the hospitality industry. When the restaurant closed their doors, they no longer need the tablecloth linen services delivered by local beer or beer from. When people stop flying, they no longer need a taxi to the airport or $ 5 bottles of water from the airport newsstand.
Baden Sports, sporting-goods manufacturers in the suburbs of Seattle from Renton, providing basketball and football tournaments for youth leagues and colleges, many of which are now being canceled. Jake Licht, who runs the company, has imposed a freeze on recruitment and draw up a budget in preparation for the recession.
“This is moving so fast,” said Mr. Licht. “We had meetings and planning sessions three days ago that has been canceled. This is a management challenge by the hour. “
Free crisis has gone beyond the ability of economists to track it. As the stock market spinning in recent days, the economic data – most of February, before the outbreak was widespread in the United States – continues to look rosy. Even indicators that usually serves as an early warning system has not been pursuing: New claims for unemployment insurance actually fell last week and remain near the low multidecade
However, there are early signs of the crisis. still gaining steam. Size fell sharply in early March, and the index of business conditions has craters. Airlines, ports, hotels and other industries directly affected have announced layoffs or furlough employees. Postings for restaurant jobs fell 26 percent last week compared to the same week last year, according to data from ZipRecruiter jobs market. jobs in catering fell 39 percent and those in low-down 44 percent.
“The change in behavior that could trigger a cascade economy that will eventually be seen in the labor market really be put into motion now,” said Julia Pollak, an economist labor in ZipRecruiter < p> workers who feel the effects of the withdrawal of the first are the people least able to afford it. Low wages, hourly employees, many of them aren ‘t get paid if they lose their jobs. Only a third of leisure and hospitality workers have access to paid off at any time, according to.
Wallace McLeod has worked in Tapwerks Ale House in Oklahoma City Bricktown district for five years, but he has never seen business slow at the bar as it was on a Thursday night. With 212 taps are divided between the two stories, the pub will be rocking with customers heading to the Cher concert at Chesapeake Energy Arena a few blocks away. “I’m not going to talk to you right now if the concert is happening,” he said in an interview.
Instead, the show Cher postponed, the bar is mostly empty and the night was supposed to bring as much as $ 13,000 in sales would be lucky to reach $ 4,000 if still toughed it. Bartender expect to make more than $ 200 for the night will be lucky to bring home $ 80, Mr. McLeod said – which means they also will curb their spending.
“You have less money,” said Mr. McLeod, noting he had to postpone the birthday party for her daughter. “You can not do a lot of things you used to do.”
The economic strength before coronavirus hit may provide protection. Companies that have spent the last few years struggling to attract and retain workers may be reluctant to lay them off, especially if they expect a rebound relatively quickly.
Many businesses do whatever they can to survive until then.
Canlis Seattle is one of the highest-end restaurant, with a piano player who entertained customers at the bar and a four-course tasting menu that runs $ 135. But when the plague began to spread in Seattle, the business began to dry up. Pak Canlis, one of the owners, realizing that his business was “one headline away” from putting a 100-plus employees out of work.
So during the three-hour meeting in an apartment overlooking the city, the manager worked out a new plan. This week, the restaurant will begin selling bagel sandwich in the morning, run a drive-through serving burgers and veggie melt for lunch and give dinner to the door of Seattle residents.
“Fine dining is not what Seattle needs right now,” the restaurant said in an Instagram post.
Updated March 17, 2020
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