coronavirus peak prediction us

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  • Feb 07, 2020

A New Analysis Predicts 1.1 Million Coronavirus Deaths in a Medium ...
A New Analysis Predicts 1.1 Million Coronavirus Deaths in a Medium …

March 19, 2020

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epidemiologists who collaborate with scientists stem the spread of the data to the new coronavirus by pressing big data, machine learning and other digital devices.

The aim is to obtain real-time forecasts and other important information to front-line health care workers and public policy makers as the outbreak unfolds.

Known as the analysis of the outbreak, which attempts to go beyond the approach of confirmed cases and deaths to measure the number of people who may be infected by the virus if they show any symptoms.

“In addition to advances in medicine, the advancement of information technology and digital data and how we beat this pandemic and prevent another Spanish flu-like results,” said Brian Hopkins, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research Inc.

analysis Outbreak trying to collect all available data on the epidemic, including confirmed cases, death, test results, track contacts from an infected person, the map of population density and demographics, tourist flows and migration, availability of health care, drug stocks and other factors.

The raw data is then processed into a format compatible with the machine-more-learning software trained to recognize patterns and clean up the variety of data sources and incorporated into algorithmic models. The model is designed to predict the number of new cases that may arise in exposed populations, or the peak infection rates under the set conditions, among other results.

Eyal Zimlichman, chief medical officer and head of innovation at the Sheba Medical Center in Israel, said the hospital relies on data-driven estimate as to ensure it has the personnel and sufficient resources in place as spread coronavirus. These include doubling the capacity of the unit coronavirus isolated and insulated intensive care unit, said Dr. Zimlichman.

The hospital has treated 40 patients for Covid-19, including 30 who remained hospitalized, he said.

, there are more than 5,200 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 92 deaths in the United States, and more than 190,000 cases worldwide.

United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began to expand the use of large equipment-flu data in forecasting about seven years ago. The agency last year awarded $ 3 million in funding for a research team at the University of Massachusetts Amherst School of Public Health and Health Sciences to develop data-based flu forecasting center. A group at Carnegie Mellon University received funding to the same center.

Both teams use this forecasting tool to help contain the coronavirus, in part by pooling together dozens of analytic models from a variety of sources. Open platform enables forecasters to share data and code, a strategy that helps collect consistent and accurate predictions.

Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician who led a team of University of Massachusetts Amherst, said one of the goals of this project is to provide information that is user-friendly for the viral infection to the public, which may include the development of smartphone applications to issue alerts more timely.

“If we can communicate data effectively, we may change the behavior,” Mr. Reich said in a statement last year announced a funding round of the CDC. This can include telling the parents to avoid the shopping mall or keep children with asthma from visiting the museum, he said.

“The more accurate and up-to-date date was observed, the better the simulation,” said Jim Hare, vice president of research at technology research and advisory firm Gartner Inc. Mr. Hare said the strategy helps connect the dots across different data sources. the use of mobile phones, for example, can be used to identify individuals who were in close contact with a known carrier of the virus based location services application on their handsets, a strategy known as contact tracing, he said.

But the build accurate Covid-19 forecasting models can be challenging, he adds, given the scarcity of information about the virus, “like it was only able to accurately predict the weather using temperature gauges”

Tomás Pueyo , vice president-technology education website Course heroes who create comprehensive forecast models together for coronavirus, said the initial problems with the test kit, combined with the overall scarcitytesting, making it difficult to build an accurate model for non-U.S.

“Even if the test is perfect, we still would be reduced because the disease takes time to show symptoms,” said Mr. Pueyo. “During the early days where you do not have symptoms, you have it and you deploy it.”

The model estimates the total number of cases in the US coronavirus at roughly 60,000 on Friday.

On Monday, a team of experts at Oxford University said their research showed the viability of smartphone applications to provide direct contact trace-ability to identify people who had contact with a confirmed Covid-19 cases-which will significantly helping to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

Christopher Fraser, a professor at Oxford University pathogen dynamics Big Data Institute, who led the team, said the application can be used as source of data for analysis of the outbreak.

“What comes out will depend on the details of the algorithm and how to flow data set,” said Mr. Fraser. “Everyone understands that privacy and security are paramount, but so tracking and controlling this epidemic,” he said, adding that implementing many of these tools fall on public policy makers.

-Jared Council contributed to this article.

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