coronavirus vs flu death

  • 10 min read
  • Feb 17, 2019

Coronavirus compared to flu: shared symptoms, different death ...
Coronavirus compared to flu: shared symptoms, different death …

By John P.A. Ioannidis

March 17, 2020

coronavirus disease today, Covid-19, has been called once-in-a-century. But maybe once in a century-failure proof.

At the time everyone in need of better information, than modelers disease and the government to quarantine or distancing just social, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or continued infection , Better information needed for decisions and actions of monumental importance to guide and monitor their impact.

Draconian reduction has been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic disappeared – either alone or as this action – a short-term extreme social distance and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should such measures would be continued if churns worldwide pandemic continues? How can policy makers to know if they are doing more good than harm?

ad

affordable vaccines or treatments take months (or even years) to develop and test properly. Given the schedule, the consequences of long-term lockdowns fully known.

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic develops a truly reliable. Given the limited testing to date, several deaths and probably most of infection from SARS-CoV-2 is being missed. We do not know if we fail to capture an infection by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the United States, does not have the ability to test a large number of people and no country has reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in represent a random sample of the general population.

ad

The evidence of failure creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of death from Covid-19. The reported rate of deaths, such as the official rate of 3.4% of the World Health Organization, the cause of horror – and nothing. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 disproportionately those with severe symptoms and a poor outcome. Like most limited health system capacity testing, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

a situation where the entire population is covered tested cruise ship Diamond Princess and her quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there is 1.0%, but this is largely elderly population, where death rates from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting mortality Diamond Princess to the age structure of the US population, the rate of death among people infected with Covid-19 will be 0.125%. But because these estimates are based on data that is very thin – only seven deaths among the infected 700 passengers and crew – the real mortality rate may extend from five times to lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who are infected will die later, and that tourists may have a different frequency of chronic disease – a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV infection-2 – than the general population. Adding additional sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the ratio of deaths in the US general population varies from 0.05% to 1%.

It was a real big influence how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A case fatality rate-wide population is 0.05% lower than seasonal influenza. If it is the correct rate, locking down the world with the social and financial consequences of potentially great might be really irrational. It’s like the elephant attacked by a house cat. Frustration and try to avoid cats, elephants deliberately jump off the cliff and die.

Could Covid-19 case fatality rate is low it? No, some say, pointing to a high level in the elderly. However, even some so-called coronavirus mild or common-cold-types have been known for decades may have a case of mortality when they infect the elderly in nursing homes. In fact, such as “light” coronavirus infects tens of millions of people every year, and account for those who are hospitalized in the US with lower respiratory tract infections each winter.

This “light” coronavirus may be involved in several thousand deaths every year around the world, although most of them are not documented with appropriate testing. Instead, they lost as the noise between 60 million deaths from all causes each year.

Although sur successveillance system has long been available for influenza, the disease was confirmed by laboratory in a small minority of cases. In the US, for example, so far this season and 222 552 (20.7%) had tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illness is between 36 million and 51 million, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 deaths from flu

Note uncertainty about influenza-like illness death. Various 2,5-fold, according to the tens of thousands of deaths. Every year, some of these deaths caused by influenza and several other viruses, such as the common-cold coronavirus.

In tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 parents who died during the 2016-2017 influenza season, influenza virus was detected in 18% of specimens, whereas other types of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who died of respiratory viral pathogens, more than one virus found in autopsies and bacteria often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that the virus is always primarily responsible for the patient’s death.

A roundup of stories on this day STAT.

If we assume things mortality rate among people infected by SARS-CoV-2 was 0.3% in the general population – mid-range Diamond Princess guess from my analysis – and that 1% of the US population will be infected (approximately 3.3 million), this would translate to approximately 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a large number, but buried in the noise of the estimated deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we do not know about the new virus out there, and did not examine individual with a PCR test, the total number of deaths from “influenza-like illness” will not seem strange this year. At most, we might have relaxed noted that the flu this season seems to be slightly worse than average. Media coverage will be less than for an NBA game between the two teams most indifferent.

Some worry that 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the US will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with a pattern similar disasters worldwide. Is that a realistic scenario, or a bad science fiction? How can we know what the point of the curve may be stopped?

The most valuable part of the information to answer these questions will determine the current prevalence of infection in a random sample of the population and repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Unfortunately, we do not have the information.

In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst of reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distance and lockdowns. Unfortunately, if these measures work. Closing schools, for example, can reduce the rate of transmission. But they can also backfire if children socialize however, if the closure of schools leads children to spend more time with family members vulnerable elderly, if the children in the home impairs the ability of the parents are working, and more. School closure can also reduce the chances of developing herd immunity in this age group were spared serious illness.

This was the perspective behind the different attitudes of the UK, at least until the time I write this. In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we do not know whether this perspective is brilliant or disastrous

to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound -. In theory. A visual that has become viral on social media and show the media how to flatten the curve reduces the volume of which is above the epidemic threshold of what health systems can handle at any time.

But if you do not become overwhelmed health systems, most of the additional deaths was not possible because the coronavirus but for other common diseases and conditions such as heart attack, stroke, trauma, bleeding, and the like untreated. If the level of the epidemic did not overwhelm health systems and extreme measures have only modest efficacy, the curve flattening can make things worse: Not overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, overwhelmed health systems will remain for a longer period of protracted. That is another reason we need data on the exact extent of the epidemic activity.

One of the bottom line is that we do not know how long the social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences on the economy, society, and mental health. unexpected evolution may occur, including the financial crisis, unrest, civil war, war, and the crisis of the social structure. At a minimum, we need to contain data for the prevalence and incidence of infectious load evolved to guide decision making.

In the scenario of the most pessimistic, I do not support, if it infects the coronavirus only 60% of the global population and 1% of those infected die, which will be translated into more than 40 million deaths globally, match the influenza pandemic of 1918.

most of this massacre will be the ones with a limited life expectancy. Which is in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

We can only hope that, as in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns months, if not years, the lives of most of the stops, the consequences of short-term and long-term fully known, and billions, not just millions, life may ultimately be at stake.

If we decide to jump off a cliff, we need some data to inform us about the reasons of such actions and the possibility of landing in a safe place.

John PA Ioannidis is professor of medicine, epidemiology and population health, science biomedical data, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford Meta-Research Innovation Center.

I’m confused about the mention of Sars Co-V-2 and how that relates to Covid 19. Maybe I misread somerhing.

Thanks for this great article. In Switzerland we experienced the same reaction: the government shut down the entire economy and act with relative figures and diagrams / superlative. “The wave is coming and we will not have enough capacity – seen in Italy”. But how these waves are measured? How many cases do you expect in 7 days, 10 days, 14 days? How much capacity we have and when to have maxed out? Desaster corona whole crisis is, without a doubt. But nobody is able to come up with clear milestones and point size. Finally: talk about isolation: there is a clear risk group … if it is really necessary to build qarantine country: why did the government not only put this risk group was quarantined rather than locking down the entire country

hope that more people will begin to reflect and begin to question the numbers. Thanks for this great article.

“In the autopsy series were tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 parents who died during the 2016-2017 influenza season, influenza virus was detected in 18% of specimens, whereas other types of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who died of respiratory viral pathogens, more than one virus found in autopsies and bacteria often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that the virus is always primarily responsible for the patient’s death. “

****** link provided on the source of the autopsy series is not suitable. It was posted in 2013 and has more years, I could not find information about the “57 old man who died during the 2016-2017 influenza season” with the respective sources. *******

Very useful nice article.

Amazing that Ioannidis did not even mention Italy, which only yesterday was calculated 475 Covid 19 deaths in a single day. He spent most of this article is to try to convince us that Covid-19 is less dangerous than seasonal flu, he raised concerns about the sweeping health care system but does not explain how it could well be less than the seasonal flu and also flooded one after the other treatment systems health far exceeds that of seasonal flu. An article really outlines not as expected of someone taking a position that the periphery.

Not only the hospital but the crematoria were overwhelmed in Italy as in China, and there are mass graves in Iran for Covid-19 satellite victims according to expert analysis reported in The Washington Post. I guess Ioannidis believe they are a normal phenomenon flu season. ~ Ian

Health Reasons will be overwhelmed because everybody and their dog going to the dr with cough. At least im guessing that was the author of satire.

Brilliant article.

The position of articles in many ways, the lack of data paralyze our decision making. But why do you only assumed to be 1% of our population will contract the disease in your modeling? When the worst-case scenario are estimated at 60%?

10000 deaths underplaying obvious given the current number in the United States and elsewhere.

The best thing, which seems the most accurate and sensible articles that I have read this year on this topic. thanks.

John, thanks for your insight. As a retired physicist, it helps me understand the uncertainties and difficulties faced by medical and political leaders we are responsible for decision-making. As usual, a balanced understanding always leads to more rational thinking and understanding.

The death rate in the world today Covid-19 is’ 1 in every 24 ‘virus’

(source World Health Organization)

Do you even read the article? Your ignorance is precisely the problem in the global response … you do not know what you do not know …

With Mireille Jacobson and Tom Chang

By Tom Bowen

ad

By Marc Lipsitch

By Paul A. Offit

By Richard A. ” Red “Lawhern

A roundup of stories on this STAT day in science and medicine

How Does the Coronavirus Compare With the Flu? - The New York Times
How Does the Coronavirus Compare With the Flu? – The New York Times

People Outside Of China Shouldn
People Outside Of China Shouldn’t Panic About The Coronavirus

The flu has already killed 10,000 across US as world frets over ...
The flu has already killed 10,000 across US as world frets over …

How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors ...
How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors …

UPDATE: Comparing the Coronavirus with the flu | WLNS 6 News
UPDATE: Comparing the Coronavirus with the flu | WLNS 6 News

Coronavirus vs. flu: What you need to know
Coronavirus vs. flu: What you need to know

Should you panic about the coronavirus from China? Experts say no ...
Should you panic about the coronavirus from China? Experts say no …

How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors ...
How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors …

Is novel coronavirus or flu a bigger threat? Experts answer your ...
Is novel coronavirus or flu a bigger threat? Experts answer your …

How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in ...
How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in …

Will warmer weather stop the spread of the coronavirus? | Science ...
Will warmer weather stop the spread of the coronavirus? | Science …

Coronavirus looks more like a pandemic: Italy, South Korea, and ...
Coronavirus looks more like a pandemic: Italy, South Korea, and …

Coronavirus Is Deadlier Than the Flu – Mother Jones
Coronavirus Is Deadlier Than the Flu – Mother Jones

How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors ...
How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors …

The coronavirus outbreak is concerning, but flu season is still ...
The coronavirus outbreak is concerning, but flu season is still …

How bad is coronavirus versus the flu and Ebola?
How bad is coronavirus versus the flu and Ebola?

FactChecking the coronavirus – Channel 4 News
FactChecking the coronavirus – Channel 4 News

Here
Here’s what a coronavirus pandemic would mean | Science News

Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying? - BBC News
Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying? – BBC News

How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let
How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Compare With SARS, Ebola, Flu …

Ray Dalio Commentary: Our Early Thinking on the Coronavirus and ...
Ray Dalio Commentary: Our Early Thinking on the Coronavirus and …

Chart: Coronavirus Infections Exceed SARS Outbreak | Statista
Chart: Coronavirus Infections Exceed SARS Outbreak | Statista

How does coronavirus compare to the flu? - Big Think
How does coronavirus compare to the flu? – Big Think

Health Officials: Flu Might Be Bigger Concern Than Coronavirus ...
Health Officials: Flu Might Be Bigger Concern Than Coronavirus …

Wuhan coronavirus less of a threat to Americans than flu, experts ...
Wuhan coronavirus less of a threat to Americans than flu, experts …

How bad is coronavirus versus the flu and Ebola?
How bad is coronavirus versus the flu and Ebola?

How influenza is much more of a threat to Americans than ...
How influenza is much more of a threat to Americans than …

How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in ...
How The New Coronavirus Compares to Past Zoonotic Outbreaks, in …

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Our ...
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research – Our …

NCDHHS: 5 more flu deaths reported in North Carolina as more than ...
NCDHHS: 5 more flu deaths reported in North Carolina as more than …

Symptoms of Coronavirus vs. the Flu vs. a Cold | Elemental
Symptoms of Coronavirus vs. the Flu vs. a Cold | Elemental

Coronavirus: How does it compare with flu stats? - LBC
Coronavirus: How does it compare with flu stats? – LBC

By the numbers: Coronavirus outbreak charted | CBC News
By the numbers: Coronavirus outbreak charted | CBC News

The viruses behind colds and flu – Compound Interest
The viruses behind colds and flu – Compound Interest

Coronavirus not as deadly as SARS or Ebola yet - DIU News
Coronavirus not as deadly as SARS or Ebola yet – DIU News

Coronavirus might be cause for concern, but flu remains much more ...
Coronavirus might be cause for concern, but flu remains much more …

Is Coronavirus Spreading Faster Than SARS, Ebola, and Swine Flu?
Is Coronavirus Spreading Faster Than SARS, Ebola, and Swine Flu?

How bad will the coronavirus outbreak get in the U.S.? - The ...
How bad will the coronavirus outbreak get in the U.S.? – The …

Wuhan
Wuhan’s coronavirus outbreak: Life inside the quarantine

How influenza is much more of a threat to Americans than ...
How influenza is much more of a threat to Americans than …

Coronavirus Is Bad. Comparing It to the Flu Is Worse | WIRED
Coronavirus Is Bad. Comparing It to the Flu Is Worse | WIRED

Is Coronavirus Spreading Faster Than SARS, Ebola, and Swine Flu?
Is Coronavirus Spreading Faster Than SARS, Ebola, and Swine Flu?

Flu vs. coronavirus mortality rate - The Washington Post
Flu vs. coronavirus mortality rate – The Washington Post

Four hospitalized as coronavirus quarantine starts in San Diego ...
Four hospitalized as coronavirus quarantine starts in San Diego …

coronavirus
coronavirus

Coronavirus Predictions and What You Should Do | SleepPhones ...
Coronavirus Predictions and What You Should Do | SleepPhones …

Coronavirus - global economies feel the pain(golin) | BetaShares
Coronavirus – global economies feel the pain(golin) | BetaShares

Swiss Medical Weekly - 2019-novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV ...
Swiss Medical Weekly – 2019-novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV …

Coronavirus Infection and Death Rates Surpass SARS, WHO Declares ...
Coronavirus Infection and Death Rates Surpass SARS, WHO Declares …

How China Is Working to Quarantine the Truth About the Coronavirus ...
How China Is Working to Quarantine the Truth About the Coronavirus …

Coronavirus: Government holds emergency COBRA meeting about Covid-19
Coronavirus: Government holds emergency COBRA meeting about Covid-19

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Our ...
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research – Our …

Coronavirus what to know: Symptoms, face mask, vaccine, how to prepare
Coronavirus what to know: Symptoms, face mask, vaccine, how to prepare

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at ...
Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at …

Tinggalkan Balasan

Alamat email Anda tidak akan dipublikasikan. Ruas yang wajib ditandai *