coronaviruses mild symptoms open a path for spread of infection

  • 7 min read
  • Jan 31, 2020

Coronavirus what to know: Symptoms, face mask, vaccine, how to prepare
Coronavirus what to know: Symptoms, face mask, vaccine, how to prepare

15

SUNNY

Bloomberg

NEW YORK – Ebola kills half of those who get it. China worried about virus outbreaks, SARS, killing 10 percent.

The new coronavirus derived from the Chinese city of Wuhan appear far more fatal, with about 2 percent of all confirmed cases dying. For many people, the disease is as serious as a cold or the flu.

That seems like good news, but it is exactly what worries scientists and public health experts who study infectious diseases ranging from the terrifying to the mundane.

“The virus heat very scary and very lethal, but if they landed in the middle of Heathrow Airport or other congregate settings, they may not be durable,” said Jennifer Rohn, head of the center for urology biology at the University College London and an expert in a pandemic. “They burn quickly and burn through the population. A virus needs a host to survive. “

In a twist of fate epidemiology, softness coronavirus may help spread undetected until it hits the most vulnerable people. Experts fear that it could find destroy the “sweet spot” – mild enough that some patients will undergo their normal routine and spreading the virus far and wide, triggering an increase in mortality. And if some patients may spread the virus when they have mild or no symptoms at all, as Chinese officials have confirmed, that would weaken efforts to stop transmission.

coronavirus has been compared to the flu, which annually infects 10000000-50000000 people each year in the United States, leaving tens of thousands of people were killed , according to the centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It is a mild-mannered serial killer. Aggressive response to coronavirus is intended to stop new pathogens from becoming deadly impersonator.

Behind the decision to lock travel for tens of millions in China, isolate suspected cases and put the public and health workers on high alert is a simple but a worrisome math: If the coronavirus just somehow to infect 60 million Americans, as swine flu did in 2009 and 2010, but with the same level of 2 percent of deaths for the new virus, it kills over 1 million people.

“Even if only 1 percent of those infected die, if it can be spread globally, which will be a lot of people,” said Christian Althaus, an epidemiologist computing at the University of Bern in Switzerland.

so far, most cases of the new coronavirus, known for now as the 2019-nCov, has been contained to China.

But the disease has a spread in the most populous nation in the world, a major center of international travel and trade to the region, with cases arising out i n Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere. There were initial reports spread in other countries, too. Four people in Germany who are infected by the visit of the Chinese co-workers who are not sick until he boarded the plane back. In Vietnam, a Chinese man from Wuhan to spread the disease to their children there during a visit to the country, during a trip in which the infected family traveling around the country on a plane, train, and taxi.

In China, the number of cases is probably much higher than has been reported. One estimate says the number of infections may have exceeded 26,000 Tuesday, according to research from the University of Jinan published in preprint Biorxiv biological sites.

In China, “what the numbers are telling us is this is a very serious situation, and the virus is spreading in a way that is very alarming,” said Michael Olsterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at University of Minnesota. So far, it seems “it will be much harder to control than SARS.”

Virus powerless on their own. Without living creatures to make their home, they can not reproduce and spread. Often, the host may be an animal, and from there the virus can jump to people.

When an outbreak occurs, isolating the virus isolates. hospital gown and mask to stop it from spreading through the air or in body fluids. Quarantine keep sick people away from the new host

Virus perfect make people sick enough to deployment -. Sneezing up germ-laden droplets of mist into the air, or leave a thin residue of the nose wipe on a subway pole -. without making them so sick or kill them so quickly that they never get a chance to spread

“There is definitely a sweet spot,” says Rohn, University College London pandemic expert. “Once you run out of people, it’s game over for the virus. It is a virus needs to strike a balance. “

Coronavirus were long thought to most causes cold-like symptoms in humans. But in 2002 and 2003, SARS coronavirus caused more than 8,000 cases and killing about 800 after it emerged in southern China – the death rate of about 10 percent. Partly because most cases of severe and easily recognizable, it is contained in a few months, although the initial period uncontained spread of China’s slow response.

“Public health is controlled SARS because SARS allow it, because you can recognize and disease isolates,” said Mark Denison, director of infectious diseases and professor of pediatrics at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, who has studied the antiviral drugs against coronaviruses.

in 2009 and 2010, another new pathogen, the swine flu virus H1N1, running around the world like wildfire. Finally, infected nearly 61 million Americans, though it was so mild that many do not know them. It causes more than 12,000 deaths in the US -. Numbers lower than what is normally from flu

“We are still trying to figure out where it is on the spectrum between SARS, where most transmission occurs from people who are very sick, to something like influenza , “said Julie Gerberding, who is director of the CDC during the SARS epidemic and is now working as an officer in the head patient Merck & Co” is probably somewhere in between the two extremes, but where it will fall is a little too early to say. Associated with a mortality rate as well. “

In a coronavirus outbreak, more than one-fifth of the patients were confirmed to have developed a serious illness, according to figures from the Chinese government. Many are elderly or have underlying medical conditions that put them at risk. But people with milder cases may continue to work, travel, shopping and spread the virus.

“If this is a mild infection that only in rare circumstances cause pneumonia or death, many people may be breathing a sigh of relief,” said Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. “But it is often a trade-off. You want to have it contained. “

No matter what happens with the outbreak of Wuhan, it will not be the last time a new coronavirus emerged from bats or other animals and began to infect people. In the last two decades, the world has dealt with two significant outbreaks of Ebola, another coronavirus diseases – mers in the Middle East – and SARS. People will continue to hit new virus, people that man has ever experienced and that they do not have natural immunity, and has developed no cure or vaccine.

“There is reason to believe this event will be to continue to happen,” said Mark Feinberg, a former Merck vaccine executive and president of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative.

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