covid 19 news death rate

  • 9 min read
  • Mar 17, 2020

COVID-19 infection growth rates, lagged mortality rates, and other ...
COVID-19 infection growth rates, lagged mortality rates, and other …

By John P.A. Ioannidis

March 17, 2020

coronavirus disease today, Covid-19, has been called once-in-a-century. But maybe once in a century-failure proof.

At the time everyone in need of better information, than modelers disease and the government to quarantine or distancing just social, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or continued infection , Better information needed for decisions and actions of monumental importance to guide and monitor their impact.

Draconian reduction has been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic disappeared – either alone or as this action – a short-term extreme social distance and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should such measures would be continued if churns worldwide pandemic continues? How can policy makers to know if they are doing more good than harm?

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affordable vaccines or treatments take months (or even years) to develop and test properly. Given the schedule, the consequences of long-term lockdowns fully known.

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic develops a truly reliable. Given the limited testing to date, several deaths and probably most of infection from SARS-CoV-2 is being missed. We do not know if we fail to capture an infection by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the United States, does not have the ability to test a large number of people and no country has reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in represent a random sample of the general population.

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The evidence of failure creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of death from Covid-19. The reported rate of deaths, such as the official rate of 3.4% of the World Health Organization, the cause of horror – and nothing. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 disproportionately those with severe symptoms and a poor outcome. Like most limited health system capacity testing, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

a situation where the entire population is covered tested cruise ship Diamond Princess and her quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there is 1.0%, but this is largely elderly population, where death rates from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting mortality Diamond Princess to the age structure of the US population, the rate of death among people infected with Covid-19 will be 0.125%. But because these estimates are based on data that is very thin – only seven deaths among the infected 700 passengers and crew – the real mortality rate may extend from five times to lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who are infected will die later, and that tourists may have a different frequency of chronic disease – a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV infection-2 – than the general population. Adding additional sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the ratio of deaths in the US general population varies from 0.05% to 1%.

It was a real big influence how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A case fatality rate-wide population is 0.05% lower than seasonal influenza. If it is the correct rate, locking down the world with the social and financial consequences of potentially great might be really irrational. It’s like the elephant attacked by a house cat. Frustration and try to avoid cats, elephants deliberately jump off the cliff and die.

Could Covid-19 case fatality rate is low it? No, some say, pointing to a high level in the elderly. However, even some so-called coronavirus mild or common-cold-types have been known for decades may have a case of mortality when they infect the elderly in nursing homes. In fact, such as “light” coronavirus infects tens of millions of people every year, and account for those who are hospitalized in the US with lower respiratory tract infections each winter.

This “light” coronavirus may be involved in several thousand deaths every year around the world, although most of them are not documented with appropriate testing. Instead, they lost as the noise between 60 million deaths from all causes each year.

Although sur successveillance system has long been available for influenza, the disease was confirmed by laboratory in a small minority of cases. In the US, for example, so far this season and 222 552 (20.7%) had tested positive for influenza. In the same period, the estimated number of influenza-like illness is between 36 million and 51 million, with an estimated 22,000 to 55,000 deaths from flu

Note uncertainty about influenza-like illness death. Various 2,5-fold, according to the tens of thousands of deaths. Every year, some of these deaths caused by influenza and several other viruses, such as the common-cold coronavirus.

In tested for respiratory viruses in specimens from 57 parents who died during the 2016-2017 influenza season, influenza virus was detected in 18% of specimens, whereas other types of respiratory virus was found in 47%. In some people who died of respiratory viral pathogens, more than one virus found in autopsies and bacteria often superimposed. A positive test for coronavirus does not mean necessarily that the virus is always primarily responsible for the patient’s death.

A roundup of stories on this day STAT.

If we assume things mortality rate among people infected by SARS-CoV-2 was 0.3% in the general population – mid-range Diamond Princess guess from my analysis – and that 1% of the US population will be infected (approximately 3.3 million), this would translate to approximately 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a large number, but buried in the noise of the estimated deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we do not know about the new virus out there, and did not examine individual with a PCR test, the total number of deaths from “influenza-like illness” will not seem strange this year. At most, we might have relaxed noted that the flu this season seems to be slightly worse than average. Media coverage will be less than for an NBA game between the two teams most indifferent.

Some worry that 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the US will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with a pattern similar disasters worldwide. Is that a realistic scenario, or a bad science fiction? How can we know what the point of the curve may be stopped?

The most valuable part of the information to answer these questions will determine the current prevalence of infection in a random sample of the population and repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Unfortunately, we do not have the information.

In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst of reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distance and lockdowns. Unfortunately, if these measures work. Closing schools, for example, can reduce the rate of transmission. But they can also backfire if children socialize however, if the closure of schools leads children to spend more time with family members vulnerable elderly, if the children in the home impairs the ability of the parents are working, and more. School closure can also reduce the chances of developing herd immunity in this age group were spared serious illness.

This was the perspective behind the different attitudes of the UK, at least until the time I write this. In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we do not know whether this perspective is brilliant or disastrous

to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound -. In theory. A visual that has become viral on social media and show the media how to flatten the curve reduces the volume of which is above the epidemic threshold of what health systems can handle at any time.

But if you do not become overwhelmed health systems, most of the additional deaths was not possible because the coronavirus but for other common diseases and conditions such as heart attack, stroke, trauma, bleeding, and the like untreated. If the level of the epidemic did not overwhelm health systems and extreme measures have only modest efficacy, the curve flattening can make things worse: Not overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, overwhelmed health systems will remain for a longer period of protracted. That is another reason we need data on the exact extent of the epidemic activity.

One of the bottom line is that we do not know how long the social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences on the economy, society, and mental health. unexpected evolution may occur, including the financial crisis, unrest, civil war, war, and the crisis of the social structure. At a minimum, we need to contain data for the prevalence and incidence of infectious load evolved to guide decision making.

In the scenario of the most pessimistic, I do not support, if it infects the coronavirus only 60% of the global population and 1% of those infected die, which will be translated into more than 40 million deaths globally, match the influenza pandemic of 1918.

most of this massacre will be the ones with a limited life expectancy. Which is in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

We can only hope that, as in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns months, if not years, the lives of most of the stops, the consequences of short-term and long-term fully known, and billions, not just millions, life may ultimately be at stake.

If we decide to jump off a cliff, we need some data to inform us about the reasons of such actions and the possibility of landing in a safe place.

John PA Ioannidis is professor of medicine, epidemiology and population health, science biomedical data, and statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford Meta-Research Innovation Center.

This works until the part about concluding that “maybe” 1% of the US will get it and “possible” death rates well under 1%. The second is a decent guess, based on what I’ve ran across, except for critical care facilities flooded produce the kind of triage China and Italy experienced, and then maybe not, then it may return it to 2-3%. Where the infection of 1% come from? This means that all is not a big problem, but actually 0.5% of 70% of the US population could die this year (forecast-side high infection; 50% more conservative). Lets hope of treatment options emerge

> evenly curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound -. in theory.

In practice, many countries have imposed extreme measures even before scratching the capacity of the health system. This means that people pay the price, without receiving benefits.

Instead of “leveling” of the curve, it eradicates it, destroying communities along the road.

Hey Stanford, Harvard listen. ICU load. Problem. Fact

The demand for inpatient and ICU Beds for COVID-19 in the United States. Lessons From City of China

No

19 COVID current crisis can not be reduced to numbers. This will not be a response on data driven as much as it would be a response based on clinical experience. Report from Wuhan served something completely unexpected and terrible. Data emerging from Italy confirms what we feared in January. No, this can not be considered a failure and those who think this is just clinically naive.

Virus and mechanisms of protection and self-preservation are impressive. Studies to date will confirm that we are dealing with something with the potential demon.

We need to buy ourselves time and those who naysay value blunt instrument in the hands threatens us all. Yes, we were winging it for now. We’ll know more in time. The transmission rate can be exaggerated. But we must work together.

Some skeptics have to think hard about how their own speculation may be all it takes for some to ignore the recommendations made in good faith intended for the greater good.

recommendation that no doubt made in good faith, but they are based on inaccurate, incomplete, quite randomly, bits of information.

A bird’s eye view of all current global health issues, disease, and the cause of 60 million deaths per year, should be done, rather than the focus of an intense and exclusive only on one of the many diseases that are currently active and deadly.

I kept wondering why the fear of this disease (in the presence of the disease is much more sinister and significant at the same time), has led the world to ‘jump off the cliff’ -. apparently without careful consideration and balanced from the consequences of this reaction, for humanity

Anna

A very interesting and well argued read. However, do not take into account Korea, there is a lockdown there, but the big test and isolation measures are strong for them in close contact with someone who tests positive. The community continues, business continues and their death rate is below 1%.

By Lauren Broffman

By Duane Schulthess

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