how coronavirus spreads person to person

  • 6 min read
  • Nov 22, 2019

WHO Calls Coronavirus
WHO Calls Coronavirus ‘Emergency’ as Person-to-Person Spread …

Once, a disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus, was announced in the United States, the report further infection dripped slowly. Two months later, that trickle has turned into a steady current

[. | | | | | | | ]

This is called exponential curve has experts worried. If the number of cases continues to double every three days, there will be about one hundred million cases in the United States in May.

[]

That is mathematics, not prophecy. Spreading can be slowed, public health professionals said, if people practice “” to avoid public spaces and generally restrict their movements.

However, without measures to slow it down, covid-19 will continue to spread exponentially for months. To understand why, it is instructive to simulate the spread of counterfeit disease through a population.

We will call our simulitis fake illness. Spread even more easily than covid-19: each time a healthy person comes into contact with sick people, healthy people become ill, too.

In a population of just five people, it did not take long for everyone to catch simulitis.

In real life, of course, people eventually recover. A recovering people can not send simulitis for healthy people or become ill after coming in contact with sick people.

Let’s see what happens when simulitis spread in a town of 200 people. We will start all the people in the town at random positions, moving at random angles, and we’ll make a person sick.

Notice how the slope of the red curve, which represents the number of sick people, rising rapidly due to spread of the disease and then tapers off as people recover.

City of our simulations is small – about the size – so simulitis able to spread rapidly throughout the population. In countries such as the United States, with 330 million people, the curve can be steep for a long time before it starts to slow down.

[]

When it comes to real covid-19, we would prefer to slow the spread of the virus before it infects the majority of the US population. For simulitis slow, let’s try to make a forced quarantine, such as one, this 19th covid ground zero.

Whoops! As health experts expect, it proved impossible to completely cover the sick from the healthy population.

Leana Wen, a former health commissioner for the city of Baltimore, explain the impracticality of forced quarantine. “Many people work in the city and living in neighboring countries, and vice versa,” said Wen. “People will be separated from their families? How does each road is blocked? How supply will reach residents “

As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, said: ‘?. The truth is those kinds of lockdowns very rare and have never been effective “

Fortunately, there is another way to slow the outbreak. Above all, health officials have encouraged people to avoid public gatherings, stay home more often and to keep a distance from others. If people who are less mobile and interact with each other less, viruses have fewer opportunities to spread.

Some people will still go out. Maybe they can not stay at home because of their work or other obligations, or perhaps they simply refuse to heed the warnings of public health. People are not only more likely to get sick themselves, they are more likely to spread simulitis, too.

Let’s see what happens when a quarter of our population continues to move around while three-quarters of Others adopted a strategy what health experts call “”

distancing More social make more people healthy, and people can be nudged away from public areas by removing their appeal.

“We control the desire to be in the public space by closing public places. Italy closed all of its restaurants. China shut down everything, and we shut things right now, “said Drew Harris, a population health researcher and assistant professor at the Thomas Jefferson University College of Public Health. “Reducing the opportunity to gather help the social distance.”

In order to simulate a more social distancing, not allowing a quarter of the population to move, we’ll see what happens when we allow only one out of every eight people moved.

The four simulation you just watch – the free-for-all, trying quarantine, social distancing moderate and broad social distance – are random. That means that resuLTS each one is unique to read this article; if you scroll up and rerun the simulation, or if you revisit this page later, your results will change.

Even with different results, being social distance will usually outperform quarantine attempt, and broad social distance usually works best of all. Below is a comparison of your results.

Simulitis not covid-19, and this simulation greatly simplifies the complexity of real life. But as simulitis spreads through network bouncing ball on the screen, covid-19 spread through human tissue – through our country, our cities, our workplaces, our families. And, like a bouncing ball on the screen, the behavior of one person can cause a ripple effect that people touch away.

[]

In a very important thing, though, this simulation there is no such reality: simulitis Unlike, covid-19 can kill. Although the mortality rate is not precisely known, it is clear that the older members of our society are most at risk of death from covid-19.

“If you want this to be more realistic,” Harris said after seeing a preview of the story, “some point have to disappear.”

Harry Stevens joined The Washington Post as a graphic reporter in 2019.

On this story

The data for the chart at the top of this story shows the number of cases reported in the United States collected by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Science and Engineering and Systems. Possible actual number of cases in the US probably much higher because and because many cases are so mild that they are infected do not visit a doctor or hospital.

Get a one-year, $ 29

Get a one-year, $ 39

story More

State around the world are working to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Here’s how masks and quarantine against viruses.

Since the outbreak of coronavirus began in China, new cases have been confirmed in more than 100 countries, with thousands of cases reported in South Korea, Italy and Iran, and hundreds in the United States.

Most Read

Follow Post Graphics

First case of person-to-person transmission of Wuhan virus in the ...
First case of person-to-person transmission of Wuhan virus in the …

Coronavirus spreads more easily from person to person than ...
Coronavirus spreads more easily from person to person than …

US sees first case of person-to-person spread of Wuhan coronavirus ...
US sees first case of person-to-person spread of Wuhan coronavirus …

How does the new coronavirus spread? | Live Science
How does the new coronavirus spread? | Live Science

First U.S. Person-to-Person Spread of Coronavirus Confirmed | Time
First U.S. Person-to-Person Spread of Coronavirus Confirmed | Time

Policy-makers have some hard choices ahead as coronavirus ...
Policy-makers have some hard choices ahead as coronavirus …

CDC confirms first case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus ...
CDC confirms first case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus …

Coronavirus: 1st Person-To-Person Spread Has Occurred In U.S., CDC ...
Coronavirus: 1st Person-To-Person Spread Has Occurred In U.S., CDC …

US reports its first case of person-to-person coronavirus spread ...
US reports its first case of person-to-person coronavirus spread …

First case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms ...
First case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms …

China coronavirus deaths, infections surge: Live updates | China ...
China coronavirus deaths, infections surge: Live updates | China …

US records first person-to-person coronavirus spread
US records first person-to-person coronavirus spread

What America did — and did NOT — learn from China during those ...
What America did — and did NOT — learn from China during those …

Timeline: How the new coronavirus spread | China News | Al Jazeera
Timeline: How the new coronavirus spread | China News | Al Jazeera

China coronavirus spread is accelerating, Xi Jinping warns - BBC News
China coronavirus spread is accelerating, Xi Jinping warns – BBC News

What is the coronavirus? Here
What is the coronavirus? Here’s what we know about it.

Coronavirus can spread before someone realizes they have it ...
Coronavirus can spread before someone realizes they have it …

First case of coronavirus spread by person with no symptoms is ...
First case of coronavirus spread by person with no symptoms is …

Russia closes China land border to prevent spread of coronavirus ...
Russia closes China land border to prevent spread of coronavirus …

How contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus and can you spread it ...
How contagious is the Wuhan coronavirus and can you spread it …

Coronavirus: What you need to know
Coronavirus: What you need to know

US reports its 1st case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus ...
US reports its 1st case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus …

Coronavirus Is Spreading, but W.H.O. Says It
Coronavirus Is Spreading, but W.H.O. Says It’s Not a Global …

U.S. reports first case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus ...
U.S. reports first case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus …

2nd person-to-person transmission of coronavirus reported in US ...
2nd person-to-person transmission of coronavirus reported in US …

U.S. confirms 1st person-to-person spread of coronavirus - The ...
U.S. confirms 1st person-to-person spread of coronavirus – The …

1st person-to-person spread of new coronavirus in US identified ...
1st person-to-person spread of new coronavirus in US identified …

Surfaces? Sneezes? Sex? How the Coronavirus Can and Cannot Spread ...
Surfaces? Sneezes? Sex? How the Coronavirus Can and Cannot Spread …

Health Officials Investigate Possible Coronavirus Case in Southe ...
Health Officials Investigate Possible Coronavirus Case in Southe …

2nd person-to-person transmission of coronavirus reported in US ...
2nd person-to-person transmission of coronavirus reported in US …

US reports first case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus ...
US reports first case of person-to-person spread of coronavirus …

As coronavirus outbreak looms, what should you do? - YouTube
As coronavirus outbreak looms, what should you do? – YouTube

What we know about the new virus behind a pneumonia outbreak in ...
What we know about the new virus behind a pneumonia outbreak in …

76 people being monitored for coronavirus, Oregon Health Authority ...
76 people being monitored for coronavirus, Oregon Health Authority …

Coronavirus transmitted from one person to another for first time ...
Coronavirus transmitted from one person to another for first time …

CDC Confirms Person-to-Person Spread of New Coronavirus in the ...
CDC Confirms Person-to-Person Spread of New Coronavirus in the …

How one man spread coronavirus from Singapore to UK via the Alps ...
How one man spread coronavirus from Singapore to UK via the Alps …

Chicago coronavirus patient infected spouse; first person-to ...
Chicago coronavirus patient infected spouse; first person-to …

Coronavirus Transmission: How Does the 2019 Coronavirus Spread?
Coronavirus Transmission: How Does the 2019 Coronavirus Spread?

Coronavirus: UK advice, symptoms, tests and treatment - in five ...
Coronavirus: UK advice, symptoms, tests and treatment – in five …

Coronavirus spreads for first time in U.S., CDC says
Coronavirus spreads for first time in U.S., CDC says

Sixth person dies as Wuhan coronavirus spreads between people ...
Sixth person dies as Wuhan coronavirus spreads between people …

Novel Coronavirus Spreads Throughout Asia and is Confirmed in the ...
Novel Coronavirus Spreads Throughout Asia and is Confirmed in the …

BlueDot used artificial intelligence to predict coronavirus spread
BlueDot used artificial intelligence to predict coronavirus spread

Oregon listing no. of people monitored, investigated for novel ...
Oregon listing no. of people monitored, investigated for novel …

Speed is critical
Speed is critical’: As coronavirus spreads in U.S., officials …

Americans should prepare for coronavirus spread in US, CDC says
Americans should prepare for coronavirus spread in US, CDC says

Coronavirus: West Coast scrambles as cases emerge nationwide - Los ...
Coronavirus: West Coast scrambles as cases emerge nationwide – Los …

How long coronaviruses may linger on contaminated surfaces ...
How long coronaviruses may linger on contaminated surfaces …

How does the coronavirus kill? How many people would it kill ...
How does the coronavirus kill? How many people would it kill …

The Coronavirus, by the Numbers - The New York Times
The Coronavirus, by the Numbers – The New York Times

SNHD releases flyer listing Coronavirus symptoms, guidelines on ...
SNHD releases flyer listing Coronavirus symptoms, guidelines on …

Coronavirus: What You Need to Know - Prince George
Coronavirus: What You Need to Know – Prince George’s County …

CDC Confirms First Known Person-to-Person Spread of New ...
CDC Confirms First Known Person-to-Person Spread of New …

Tinggalkan Balasan

Alamat email Anda tidak akan dipublikasikan. Ruas yang wajib ditandai *